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Alay vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Alay
Alay
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
5/17/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alay31%
×Draw19%
Altyn Asyr50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alay
2.13
Altyn Asyr
2.69

Altyn Asyr creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Alay
2.40
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Alay
3.80
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Alay+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alay ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Alay or draw
50%
Alay or Altyn Asyr
81%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
69%

Winning margin

Alay wins by 2+
17%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Alay 1+ goals
88%
Alay 2+ goals
63%
Alay 3+ goals
35%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
93%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
74%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Alay (draw refunded)
38%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alay at home — creates 2.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alay attack 2.40 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Alay defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alay scores more
31%
level
19%
Altyn Asyr scores more
50%

Altyn Asyr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alay vs Altyn Asyr

Altyn Asyr beat Alay 5-4 in AFC Cup on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.