Altos 0–3 Fluminense PI: Result & Stats | Serie D

Altos

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fluminense PI

Joao Vitor 72', 69' (pen)

Junior Timbo 16'

4/12/2026

Serie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Altos50%

×Draw25%

Fluminense PI25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchFluminense PI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.03

Altos

1.56

Fluminense PI

1.03

Altos creates 51% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Altos

1.68

Fluminense PI

0.96

allows per match

Altos

1.10

Fluminense PI

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Fluminense PI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Altos or draw

75%

Altos or Fluminense PI

75%

Draw or Fluminense PI

50%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

26%

Fluminense PI wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

79%

Altos 2+ goals

46%

Altos 3+ goals

21%

Fluminense PI 1+ goals

64%

Fluminense PI 2+ goals

28%

Fluminense PI 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

66%

Fluminense PI (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

Fluminense PI away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.68 + Fluminense PI defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fluminense PI attack 0.96 + Altos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Altos scores more

50%

level

25%

Fluminense PI scores more

25%

Altos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Junior Timbo

68'

Anderson Sobral

68'

Anderson Sobral

69'

Joao VitorPenalty

72'

Joao Vitor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff