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Altos vs Fluminense PI — League #621 2026

Altos
Altos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fluminense PI
Fluminense PI
Betinho 70', 51' (pen)
Pedrinho 27'
Leo 5'
1/24/2026League #621League #621 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Altos63%
×Draw24%
Fluminense PI13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.66
Fluminense PI
0.59

Altos creates 181% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Altos
1.73
Fluminense PI
0.58

allows per match

Altos
0.60
Fluminense PI
1.58

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 61Over: 3961%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Fluminense PI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Altos or draw
87%
Altos or Fluminense PI
76%
Draw or Fluminense PI
37%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
36%
Fluminense PI wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
81%
Altos 2+ goals
49%
Altos 3+ goals
23%
Fluminense PI 1+ goals
45%
Fluminense PI 2+ goals
12%
Fluminense PI 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
83%
Fluminense PI (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Fluminense PI away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.73 + Fluminense PI defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Fluminense PI attack 0.58 + Altos defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Altos scores more
63%
level
24%
Fluminense PI scores more
13%

Altos at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Leo
27'
Pedrinho
51'
BetinhoPenalty
70'
Betinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #621: Altos 2–2 Fluminense PI

Altos and Fluminense PI drew 2-2 in League #621 on January 24, 2026.

Goals: Leo (5'), Pedrinho (27'), Betinho (51' pen, 70').