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Altos vs Ferroviario — Serie D 2026

Altos
Altos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ferroviario
Ferroviario
Robinho 38'
4/18/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Altos46%
×Draw26%
Ferroviario28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altos
1.46
Ferroviario
1.08

Altos creates 35% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 35 away

creates per match

Altos
1.68
Ferroviario
1.06

allows per match

Altos
1.10
Ferroviario
1.23

finishing

Altos+0.00on par
Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Ferroviario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Altos or draw
72%
Altos or Ferroviario
74%
Draw or Ferroviario
54%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+
22%
Ferroviario wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals
77%
Altos 2+ goals
43%
Altos 3+ goals
18%
Ferroviario 1+ goals
66%
Ferroviario 2+ goals
29%
Ferroviario 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)
62%
Ferroviario (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 41 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.68 + Ferroviario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ferroviario attack 1.06 + Altos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altos scores more
46%
level
26%
Ferroviario scores more
28%

Altos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Robinho
Altos
Ferroviario
Jerson Testoni
Manager: Jerson Testoni
Nuno Pereira
Manager: Nuno Pereira

Match Recap: Altos vs Ferroviario

Altos beat Ferroviario 1-0 in Serie D on April 18, 2026.

Goals: Robinho (38').