Altos 1–0 Ferroviario: Result & Stats | Serie C

Altos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ferroviario

Paulo Rangel 70'

6/12/2022

Serie C · Round 10Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Altos46%

×Draw27%

Ferroviario27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.97

Altos

1.37

Ferroviario

0.97

Altos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

1.15

creates per match

0.87

1.07

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Altos

1.15

Ferroviario

0.87

allows per match

Altos

1.07

Ferroviario

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Altos or draw

73%

Altos or Ferroviario

73%

Draw or Ferroviario

54%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

22%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

75%

Altos 2+ goals

40%

Altos 3+ goals

16%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

62%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

25%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

63%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.15 + Ferroviario defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ferroviario attack 0.87 + Altos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Altos scores more

46%

level

27%

Ferroviario scores more

27%

Altos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Tibiri

11'

Rafael Pitanga

20'

Yuri Ferraz← Lionn

32'

Emerson Souza

43'

Lucas do Carmo

46'

Dieguinho← Marcos Aurélio

46'

Bruninho← Mateus Anderson

46'

Maicon Assis← Eder Lima

55'

Breno← Eduardo

56'

Jerry← Sousa Tibiri

65'

Dieyson

66'

João Carlos← Júlio Ferrari

66'

Paulo Rangel← Valderrama

67'

Maicon Souza← Bruninho

70'

Paulo Rangel

84'

Dos Santos← Elielton

87'

89'

Vitao

90+9'

Betinho

Altos

Ferroviario

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Fernando Tonet

46'▲Dieguinho←▼Marcos Aurélio

56'▲Jerry←▼Sousa Tibiri

66'▲João Carlos←▼Júlio Ferrari

66'▲Paulo Rangel←▼Valderrama

84'▲Dos Santos←▼Elielton

Altos substitutes

DieguinhoJerryCarlosRangelSantosBalaVianaHenriqueMarceloMimicaDel'amoreDico

Manager: Roberto Fonseca

20'▲Yuri Ferraz←▼Lionn

46'▲Bruninho←▼Mateus Anderson

46'▲Maicon Assis←▼Eder Lima

55'▲Breno←▼Eduardo

67'▲Maicon Souza←▼Bruninho

Ferroviario substitutes

FerrazBruninhoAssisBrenoSouzaJeanDineyGustavoCosta