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Altay vs Akzhayik — Cup 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
A. Rakhimzhanov 22'
3/17/2024CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Altay20%
×Draw25%
Akzhayik55%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
0.89
Akzhayik
1.64

Akzhayik creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Altay
0.50
Akzhayik
1.27

allows per match

Altay
2.00
Akzhayik
1.27

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Altay or draw
45%
Altay or Akzhayik
75%
Draw or Akzhayik
80%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
7%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
59%
Altay 2+ goals
22%
Altay 3+ goals
6%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
81%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
49%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
27%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 0.50 + Akzhayik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Akzhayik attack 1.27 + Altay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Altay scores more
20%
level
25%
Akzhayik scores more
55%

Akzhayik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Rakhimzhanov
37'
M. Kitaev← M. Kitaev
45'
E. Murat← E. Murat
54'
T. Zarzhitskiy← T. Zarzhitskiy
56'
B. Imangazeyev← B. Imangazeyev
58'
G. Kan
60'
M. Pangerey
62'
A. Seytkaliev← O. Toktasynov
62'
A. Rakhimzhanov← E. Ospangali
62'
B. Malikov← B. Malikov
69'
T. Rejepov
78'
I. Antipov← M. Gelmanov
90+1'
R. Chirkov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altay vs Akzhayik

Altay beat Akzhayik 1-0 in Cup on March 17, 2024.

Goals: A. Rakhimzhanov (22').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.