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Altay vs Akzhayik — Cup 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Akzhayik
Akzhayik
B. Akhayev 75'
A. Smailov 88', 63', 9'
B. Omarov 36'
E. Kobzar 26'
3/24/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Altay20%
×Draw25%
Akzhayik55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
0.89
Akzhayik
1.64

Akzhayik creates 84% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Altay
0.50
Akzhayik
1.27

allows per match

Altay
2.00
Akzhayik
1.27

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Akzhayik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Akzhayik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Altay or draw
45%
Altay or Akzhayik
75%
Draw or Akzhayik
80%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
7%
Akzhayik wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
59%
Altay 2+ goals
22%
Altay 3+ goals
6%
Akzhayik 1+ goals
81%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
49%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
27%
Akzhayik (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Akzhayik away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 0.50 + Akzhayik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Akzhayik attack 1.27 + Altay defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Altay scores more
20%
level
25%
Akzhayik scores more
55%

Akzhayik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Smailov
26'
E. Kobzar
36'
B. Omarov
63'
A. Smailov
75'
B. Akhayev
88'
A. Smailov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Altay 1–5 Akzhayik

Akzhayik beat Altay 5-1 in Cup on March 24, 2023.

Goals: A. Smailov (9', 63', 88'), E. Kobzar (26'), B. Omarov (36'), B. Akhayev (75').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.