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Altay vs Aktobe — 1. Division 2019

Altay
Altay
FT
2 – 0
Aktobe
Aktobe
A. Metallov 90+4'
B. Sergali 88'
10/31/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 14Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Altay36%
×Draw30%
Aktobe34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altay
1.07
Aktobe
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 6 away

creates per match

Altay
1.64
Aktobe
1.17

allows per match

Altay
0.89
Aktobe
0.50

finishing

Altay+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altay ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Altay or draw
66%
Altay or Aktobe
70%
Draw or Aktobe
64%

Winning margin

Altay wins by 2+
14%
Aktobe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Altay 1+ goals
66%
Altay 2+ goals
29%
Altay 3+ goals
9%
Aktobe 1+ goals
64%
Aktobe 2+ goals
28%
Aktobe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Altay (draw refunded)
51%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altay at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altay attack 1.64 + Aktobe defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Aktobe attack 1.17 + Altay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Altay scores more
36%
level
30%
Aktobe scores more
34%

Altay at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
88'
B. Sergali
90+4'
A. Metallov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Altay 2 – 0 Aktobe

Altay beat Aktobe 2-0 in 1. Division on October 31, 2020.

Goals: B. Sergali (88'), A. Metallov (90+4').

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.