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Aktobe vs Altay — 1. Division 2019

Aktobe
Aktobe
FT
2 – 0
Altay
Altay
V. Volkov 83'
A. Chasovskikh 70'
10/3/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 7Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aktobe64%
×Draw21%
Altay14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aktobe
1.90
Altay
0.75

Aktobe creates 153% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 46 away

creates per match

Aktobe
2.67
Altay
1.33

allows per match

Aktobe
0.17
Altay
1.13

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par
Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

Altay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw
86%
Aktobe or Altay
79%
Draw or Altay
36%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+
39%
Altay wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals
85%
Aktobe 2+ goals
56%
Aktobe 3+ goals
29%
Altay 1+ goals
53%
Altay 2+ goals
17%
Altay 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)
82%
Altay (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Altay away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 2.67 + Altay defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Altay attack 1.33 + Aktobe defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aktobe scores more
64%
level
21%
Altay scores more
14%

Aktobe at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aktobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
A. Chasovskikh
83'
V. Volkov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aktobe vs Altay

Aktobe beat Altay 2-0 in 1. Division on October 3, 2020.

Goals: A. Chasovskikh (70'), V. Volkov (83').

The match was played at Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9 in Shymkent.