Alta 4–3 Levanger: Result & Stats

Alta

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Levanger

P. Brekke 90'

C. Reginiussen 76'

M. Opgard 70'

F. Jacobsen 45'

E. Kolve 43'

M. Hoiseth 39'

J. Andersen 24' (OG)

3/31/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Finnmarkshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Alta41%

×Draw22%

Levanger37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltaExpected goals in this matchLevanger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.80

Alta

1.89

Levanger

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

2.34

creates per match

2.05

1.55

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Alta

2.34

Levanger

2.05

allows per match

Alta

1.55

Levanger

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alta+0.00on par

Levanger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Levanger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Alta or draw

63%

Alta or Levanger

78%

Draw or Levanger

59%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+

22%

Levanger wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals

85%

Alta 2+ goals

56%

Alta 3+ goals

29%

Levanger 1+ goals

83%

Levanger 2+ goals

54%

Levanger 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)

52%

Levanger (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

Levanger away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Levanger defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Levanger attack 2.05 + Alta defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alta scores more

41%

level

22%

Levanger scores more

37%

Alta at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

E. Hajdari← H. S. Stakset

16'

J. Lamark← T. Norbye

18'

M. Fagernes

24'

J. AndersenOwn goal

39'

43'

45'

46'

50'

66'

68'

T. Suhr-Stamnes← T. Hestad

70'

M. Opgard

75'

P. Eriksson← N. Antonsen

76'

C. Reginiussen

86'

T. Suhr-Stamnes

90+9'

M. Opgard

90'

M. Mattingsdal← W. Bjeglerud

90'

T. Olsen← E. Kolve

90'

P. Brekke

Alta

Levanger

1

2

5

22

32

3

▼

Bjeglerud

8

Teigen

6

⚽

▼

Kolve

11

▼

Fagernes

17

⚽

Hoiseth

21

▼

29

12

22

30

▼

Norbye

16

▼

Antonsen

32

🥅

Andersen

8

▼

Olsen

14

⚽

Jacobsen

10

▼

Hestad

18

⚽

Brekke

23

⚽

Reginiuss

Manager: M. Duilo

16'▲J. Lamark←▼T. Norbye

46'▲M. Opgard←▼G. Olsen

68'▲T. Suhr-Stamnes←▼T. Hestad

75'▲P. Eriksson←▼N. Antonsen

Alta substitutes

34Arnason3Smirnov5Lamark17Degerstrom20Suhr-Stamnes25Holsbo33Opgard45Eriksson27Akesson

Manager: J. Aas

7'▲E. Hajdari←▼H. S. Stakset

66'▲J. Aas←▼M. Fagernes

90'▲M. Mattingsdal←▼W. Bjeglerud

90'▲T. Olsen←▼E. Kolve

Levanger substitutes

7Hajdari10Aas14Steen15Mattingsdal16Olsen

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 4–3 Levanger

Alta beat Levanger 4-3 in 2. Division - Group 2 on March 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Andersen (24' o.g.), M. Hoiseth (39'), E. Kolve (43'), F. Jacobsen (45'), M. Opgard (70'), C. Reginiussen (76'), P. Brekke (90').

The match was played at Finnmarkshallen in Alta.

Alta vs Levanger — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Alta 4–3 Levanger