Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 0–3 Al Talaba

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Al Talaba

10/31/2020

Iraqi League · Round 2Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya32%

×Draw33%

Al Talaba35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alsinaat Al KahrabaiyaExpected goals in this matchAl Talaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.92

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.86

Al Talaba

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 111 away

0.76

creates per match

1.14

0.71

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.76

Al Talaba

1.14

allows per match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

0.71

Al Talaba

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya ↓

Al Talaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or draw

65%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya or Al Talaba

67%

Draw or Al Talaba

68%

Winning margin

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+

11%

Al Talaba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals

58%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals

21%

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals

6%

Al Talaba 1+ goals

60%

Al Talaba 2+ goals

23%

Al Talaba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)

48%

Al Talaba (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.76 + Al Talaba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Talaba attack 1.14 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more

32%

level

33%

Al Talaba scores more

35%

Al Talaba at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff