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Al Talaba vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
3/9/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · 2020 - 4Al-Shaab Stadium (Baġdād (Bagdad))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al Talaba50%
×Draw27%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.42
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.86

Al Talaba creates 65% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.77

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.59

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
77%
Al Talaba or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
73%
Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
50%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
25%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
76%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
41%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
17%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
58%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
21%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
69%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Talaba scores more
50%
level
27%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
23%

Al Talaba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Al Talaba beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3-1 in Iraqi League on March 9, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium (Baġdād (Bagdad)).