Almirante Brown 1–0 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Almirante Brown

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aldosivi

7/20/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almirante Brown40%

×Draw31%

Aldosivi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.86

Almirante Brown

1.07

Aldosivi

0.86

Almirante Brown creates 24% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 36 away

0.97

creates per match

0.97

0.75

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Almirante Brown

0.97

Aldosivi

0.97

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.75

Aldosivi

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

71%

Almirante Brown or Aldosivi

69%

Draw or Aldosivi

60%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

16%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

66%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

29%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

9%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

58%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

21%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

58%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

40%

level

31%

Aldosivi scores more

29%

Almirante Brown at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Aldosivi

Almirante Brown beat Aldosivi 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Almirante Brown vs Aldosivi — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Aldosivi