Aldosivi 0–0 Almirante Brown: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almirante Brown

3/3/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 5Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aldosivi46%

×Draw30%

Almirante Brown24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchAlmirante Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.77

Aldosivi

1.19

Almirante Brown

0.77

Aldosivi creates 55% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 102 away

1.11

creates per match

0.85

0.70

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.11

Almirante Brown

0.85

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.70

Almirante Brown

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Almirante Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

76%

Aldosivi or Almirante Brown

70%

Draw or Almirante Brown

54%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

20%

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

70%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

33%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

12%

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

54%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

18%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

66%

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.11 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Aldosivi defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aldosivi scores more

46%

level

30%

Almirante Brown scores more

24%

Aldosivi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff