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Almeria vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Almeria
Almeria
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Elche
Elche
Sergio Aguza 90+1'
Juan Carlos 59'
Álvaro Giménez 45+2' (pen), 43', 15'
Iván Sánchez 69' (pen)
Nino 9'
Nacho Gil 3' (pen)
5/12/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 38Estadio del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Almeria50%
×Draw26%
Elche25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeria
1.54
Elche
1.01

Almeria creates 52% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 86 away

creates per match

Almeria
1.79
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Almeria
0.95
Elche
1.28

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almeria or draw
75%
Almeria or Elche
74%
Draw or Elche
50%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+
25%
Elche wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals
79%
Almeria 2+ goals
45%
Almeria 3+ goals
20%
Elche 1+ goals
64%
Elche 2+ goals
27%
Elche 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)
67%
Elche (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.79 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elche attack 1.07 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almeria scores more
50%
level
26%
Elche scores more
25%

Almeria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Álvaro GiménezAlmeriaAlmeria · F
9.5

Match Events

3'
Nacho GilPenalty
9'
Nino↳ Iván Sánchez
15'
Gonzalo Villar
15'
Álvaro Giménez
37'
Nacho Gil
43'
Álvaro Giménez
45'
Nino
45+2'
Álvaro GiménezPenalty
46'
Manuel Sanchez
59'
Juan Carlos↳ César de la Hoz
60'
Y. Qasmi← Carlos Castro
60'
K. Azamoum← Gonzalo Villar
67'
Gonzalo Verdú
69'
Iván SánchezPenalty
74'
E. Demirović← Álvaro Giménez
80'
Borja Giner← Nacho Gil
82'
Sergio Aguza← Juan Carlos
85'
Sergio Aguza
90'
L. Owona← Luis Rioja
90+1'
Sergio Aguza

Possession

43%Almeria

Shots

17Almeria

Pass accuracy

47%Almeria

Statistics

AlmeriaElche
Overview
43%Possession57%
17Total Shots9
5Corners7
25Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots9
11On Target5
3Off Target2
3Blocked2
14Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
287Total Passes370
187Accurate Passes272
65%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
25Fouls12
1Yellow Cards5
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Almeria vs Elche

Almeria beat Elche 5-3 in Segunda División on May 12, 2019.

Goals: Nacho Gil (3' pen), Nino (9'), Álvaro Giménez (15', 43', 45+2' pen), Juan Carlos (59'), Iván Sánchez (69' pen), Sergio Aguza (90+1').

Elche controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio del Mediterráneo in Almeria.