Almere City II 1–2 Hoek: Result & Stats

Almere City II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hoek

J. Nsingi 83'

D. Sula 88'

G. Martens 54'

11/22/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 14Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Almere City II42%

×Draw22%

Hoek37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City IIExpected goals in this matchHoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.79

Almere City II

1.92

Hoek

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

2.36

creates per match

1.94

1.64

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Almere City II

2.36

Hoek

1.94

allows per match

Almere City II

1.64

Hoek

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par

Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Hoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw

63%

Almere City II or Hoek

78%

Draw or Hoek

58%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+

23%

Hoek wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals

85%

Almere City II 2+ goals

57%

Almere City II 3+ goals

30%

Hoek 1+ goals

83%

Hoek 2+ goals

53%

Hoek 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)

53%

Hoek (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

Hoek away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.36 + Hoek defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hoek attack 1.94 + Almere City II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almere City II scores more

42%

level

22%

Hoek scores more

37%

Almere City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

50'

54'

61'

61'

J. Nsingi← J. Zijsling

67'

T. Lijbers← M. Steenpoorte

77'

M. A. Saygi← B. Pennock

77'

G. Delannoy← N. Aelterman

83'

J. Nsingi↳ O. de Nijs

85'

H. Bouihrouchane

88'

D. Sula↳ T. Lijbers

90+1'

J. Pengel← D. Sula

Almere

Hoek

1

Murre

2

Poorter

21

⚽

25

5

18

10

▼

Aelterman

14

Hauter

13

Hebbelinc

17

⚽

▼

Sula

16

▼

31

34

33

35

45

▼

Pennock

36

Lever

21

▼

Dahri

53

▼

Zijsling

19

A

Nijs

37

Goghli

40

Dors

Manager: Ralph Hovestad

61'▲A. Bais←▼H. el Dahri

61'▲J. Nsingi←▼J. Zijsling

77'▲M. A. Saygi←▼B. Pennock

Almere City II substitutes

41Reit44Abdulmahmoud48Mojanaga50Saygi55Woudstra49Bais39Nsingi

Manager: Gérard de Nooijer

67'▲T. Lijbers←▼M. Steenpoorte

77'▲G. Delannoy←▼N. Aelterman

90+1'▲J. Pengel←▼D. Sula

Hoek substitutes

30Standaert3Pengel15Gogh8Lijbers6Vandecandelaere11Delannoy19Ngongo