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Almere City II vs Hoek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
4 – 1
Hoek
Hoek
S. Krant 87'
A. Kosiah 59'
G. With 51'
J. Vos 45'
Unknown 73'
12/14/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 16Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen - Almere C - veld 1 (Almere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Almere City II46%
×Draw20%
Hoek34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.27
Hoek
1.94

Almere City II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.67
Hoek
1.80

allows per match

Almere City II
2.08
Hoek
1.86

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Hoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
66%
Almere City II or Hoek
80%
Draw or Hoek
54%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
27%
Hoek wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
90%
Almere City II 2+ goals
66%
Almere City II 3+ goals
39%
Hoek 1+ goals
86%
Hoek 2+ goals
58%
Hoek 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
58%
Hoek (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

Hoek away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.67 + Hoek defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Hoek attack 1.80 + Almere City II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Almere City II scores more
46%
level
20%
Hoek scores more
34%

Almere City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
J. Vos
51'
G. With
59'
A. Kosiah
73'
87'
S. Krant

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almere City II 4 – 1 Hoek

Almere City II beat Hoek 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Vos (45'), G. With (51'), A. Kosiah (59'), ? (73'), S. Krant (87').

The match was played at Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen - Almere C - veld 1 (Almere).