Almere City FC 2–2 Ajax: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ajax

11/12/2023

Eredivisie · Round 12Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC19%

×Draw21%

Ajax61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchAjax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.09

Almere City FC

1.07

Ajax

2.09

Ajax creates 95% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 131 away

0.92

creates per match

2.25

1.94

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Almere City FC

0.92

Ajax

2.25

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.94

Ajax

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

39%

Almere City FC or Ajax

79%

Draw or Ajax

81%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

7%

Ajax wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

66%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

29%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

9%

Ajax 1+ goals

88%

Ajax 2+ goals

62%

Ajax 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

24%

Ajax (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

Ajax away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.22 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + Ajax defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ajax attack 2.25 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Almere City FC scores more

19%

level

21%

Ajax scores more

61%

Ajax at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff