Ajax 3–0 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

Ajax

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Almere City FC

5/12/2024

Eredivisie · Round 33Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ajax70%

×Draw18%

Almere City FC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaxExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.79

Ajax

2.25

Almere City FC

0.79

Ajax creates 185% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 37 away

2.88

creates per match

0.76

0.82

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ajax

2.88

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

Ajax

0.82

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ajax or draw

88%

Ajax or Almere City FC

82%

Draw or Almere City FC

30%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+

46%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals

89%

Ajax 2+ goals

65%

Ajax 3+ goals

39%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

55%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

19%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)

86%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.82 · 133 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 2.88 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.25

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Ajax defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ajax scores more

70%

level

18%

Almere City FC scores more

12%

Ajax at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff