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Alittihad Misurata vs Abu Salim — Premier League 2019

Alittihad Misurata
Alittihad Misurata
FT
0 – 1
Abu Salim
Abu Salim
2/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Alittihad Misurata43%
×Draw31%
Abu Salim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alittihad Misurata
1.11
Abu Salim
0.79

Alittihad Misurata creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Alittihad Misurata
1.15
Abu Salim
0.82

allows per match

Alittihad Misurata
0.76
Abu Salim
1.07

finishing

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par
Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alittihad Misurata ↓

Abu Salim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Alittihad Misurata or draw
74%
Alittihad Misurata or Abu Salim
69%
Draw or Abu Salim
57%

Winning margin

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+
18%
Abu Salim wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals
67%
Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals
30%
Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals
10%
Abu Salim 1+ goals
55%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
19%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)
62%
Abu Salim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alittihad Misurata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.76 · 62 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alittihad Misurata attack 1.15 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Alittihad Misurata defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alittihad Misurata scores more
43%
level
31%
Abu Salim scores more
26%

Alittihad Misurata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alittihad Misurata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Alittihad Misurata 0–1 Abu Salim

Abu Salim beat Alittihad Misurata 1-0 in Premier League on February 19, 2022.