Abu Salim 2–0 Alittihad Misurata: Result & Stats

Abu Salim

FT

2 – 0

Alittihad Misurata

2/11/2023

Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Abu Salim35%

×Draw31%

Alittihad Misurata34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abu SalimExpected goals in this matchAlittihad Misurata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.00

Abu Salim

1.03

Alittihad Misurata

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 63 away

0.93

creates per match

0.84

1.16

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Abu Salim

0.93

Alittihad Misurata

0.84

allows per match

Abu Salim

1.16

Alittihad Misurata

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Alittihad Misurata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw

66%

Abu Salim or Alittihad Misurata

69%

Draw or Alittihad Misurata

65%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+

14%

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals

64%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

28%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

9%

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals

63%

Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals

26%

Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

51%

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Abu Salim scores more

35%

level

31%

Alittihad Misurata scores more

34%

Abu Salim at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff