Alianza Valledupar 3–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millonarios

C. Arias 59' (pen), 54', 50' (pen)

C. Carrillo 62', 33'

9/5/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 8Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Alianza Valledupar33%

×Draw27%

Millonarios40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Alianza Valledupar

1.17

Millonarios

1.31

Millonarios creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.31

creates per match

1.39

1.23

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Millonarios

1.39

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Millonarios

1.03

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Millonarios+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

60%

Alianza Valledupar or Millonarios

73%

Draw or Millonarios

67%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

14%

Millonarios wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

69%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

33%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

11%

Millonarios 1+ goals

73%

Millonarios 2+ goals

38%

Millonarios 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

45%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.03 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Millonarios defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Millonarios attack 1.39 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

33%

level

27%

Millonarios scores more

40%

Millonarios at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Arias

Alianza Valledupar · F

8.9

Match Events

23'

David Valencia

33'

C. Carrillo↳ A. Román

38'

Ayron Del Valle

44'

Roberto Ovelar

46'

C. Arias← P. Vranjicán

46'

R. Torres← J. Ríos

50'

C. AriasPenalty

54'

C. Arias↳ R. Torres

58'

Matías De los Santos

59'

C. AriasPenalty

61'

Roger Torres

61'

O. Barreto← C. Marrugo

62'

C. Carrillo↳ O. Barreto

66'

F. Flórez← H. Rivera

71'

Harrison Henao

71'

J. Salazar← A. Del Valle

71'

Gabriel Hauche← E. Quiñónes

75'

76'

76'

82'

82'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaMillonarios

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots20

6Corners8

22Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots20

3On Target6

3Off Target8

1Blocked6

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box9

Passing

58%Possession42%

416Total Passes295

356Accurate Passes234

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls19

7Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 3–2 Millonarios

Alianza Valledupar beat Millonarios 3-2 in Primera A on September 5, 2018.

Goals: C. Carrillo (33', 62'), C. Arias (50' pen, 54', 59' pen).

Alianza Valledupar controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.

Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 3–2 Millonarios