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Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
Preview
21:10
Llaneros
Llaneros
11/3/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 18Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
45%
Alianza Valledupar
model favours
45%27%28%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%
×Draw27%
Llaneros28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.37
Llaneros
1.01

Alianza Valledupar creates 36% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 30 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Llaneros
0.90

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Llaneros
1.43

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
72%
Alianza Valledupar or Llaneros
73%
Draw or Llaneros
55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
21%
Llaneros wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
75%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
40%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
16%
Llaneros 1+ goals
64%
Llaneros 2+ goals
27%
Llaneros 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
62%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
45%
level
27%
Llaneros scores more
28%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Alianza Valledupar
Balanced
Llaneros
Balanced
49%Possession48%
79%Pass accuracy79%
12.1ShotsBiggest gap10.8
0.98xG1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Alianza ValleduparLlaneros

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

2
Alianza Valledupar
1
Draws
0
Llaneros
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 33%
0–03–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Valledupar
WLWDD
Llaneros
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alianza Valledupar face Llaneros (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Alianza Valledupar hosting Llaneros. Match starts November 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alianza Valledupar host Llaneros at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.