Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jaguares

3/31/2022

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alianza Valledupar56%

×Draw24%

Jaguares20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.90

Alianza Valledupar

1.71

Jaguares

0.90

Alianza Valledupar creates 90% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

2.00

creates per match

0.84

0.95

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

2.00

Jaguares

0.84

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

0.95

Jaguares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

80%

Alianza Valledupar or Jaguares

76%

Draw or Jaguares

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

31%

Jaguares wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

82%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

51%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

24%

Jaguares 1+ goals

59%

Jaguares 2+ goals

23%

Jaguares 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

74%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 2.00 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jaguares attack 0.84 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

56%

level

24%

Jaguares scores more

20%

Alianza Valledupar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff