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Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
2/7/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Alianza Valledupar51%
×Draw26%
Jaguares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.50
Jaguares
0.90

Alianza Valledupar creates 67% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 138 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Jaguares
0.67

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.13
Jaguares
1.69

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
77%
Alianza Valledupar or Jaguares
74%
Draw or Jaguares
49%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
26%
Jaguares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
78%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
44%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
19%
Jaguares 1+ goals
59%
Jaguares 2+ goals
23%
Jaguares 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
69%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.13 · 166 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.69 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Jaguares defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
51%
level
26%
Jaguares scores more
23%

Alianza Valledupar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Jaguares

Alianza Valledupar beat Jaguares 2-0 in Primera A on February 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata in Barrancabermeja.