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Alianza Valledupar vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2018

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
1/27/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Alianza Valledupar39%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Cali33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.27
Deportivo Cali
1.14

Alianza Valledupar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.31
Deportivo Cali
1.05

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.23
Deportivo Cali
1.24

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less
Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
67%
Alianza Valledupar or Deportivo Cali
72%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
61%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
39%
level
28%
Deportivo Cali scores more
33%

Alianza Valledupar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 3–3 Deportivo Cali

Alianza Valledupar and Deportivo Cali drew 3-3 in Primera A on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.