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Alianza Universidad vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
9/25/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alianza Universidad64%
×Draw20%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Universidad
2.13
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.95

Alianza Universidad creates 124% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 25 away

creates per match

Alianza Universidad
2.09
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Alianza Universidad
0.95
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw
84%
Alianza Universidad or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
80%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
36%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
40%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
88%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
63%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
35%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
61%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
25%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
80%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.13

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more
64%
level
20%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
16%

Alianza Universidad at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Alianza Universidad beat Alfonso Ugarte Puno 4-2 in Segunda División on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.