Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Alianza Universidad — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Alfonso Ugarte Puno45%
Alianza Universidad30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 25% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 43 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches
Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58
Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Cesar Vallejo
Carlos A. Mannucci
Cienciano
Union Huaral
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Juan Aurich
Alianza Atletico
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Coopsol
LOS Caimanes
Sport Victoria
Sport Loreto
Alfredo Salinas
Serrato PacasmayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alfonso Ugarte Puno host Alianza Universidad on Thursday, 3 August 2023 at 18:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Segunda División: Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2–2 Alianza Universidad
Alfonso Ugarte Puno and Alianza Universidad drew 2-2 in Segunda División on August 3, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Puno.