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Alianza Lima vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ADT
ADT
8/11/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Alianza Lima58%
×Draw24%
ADT19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.73
ADT
0.87

Alianza Lima creates 99% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 78 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
ADT
0.97

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
ADT
1.62

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
81%
Alianza Lima or ADT
76%
Draw or ADT
42%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
32%
ADT wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
82%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
52%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
25%
ADT 1+ goals
58%
ADT 2+ goals
22%
ADT 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
75%
ADT (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

ADT attack 0.97 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
58%
level
24%
ADT scores more
19%

Alianza Lima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Alianza Lima 0–0 ADT

Alianza Lima and ADT drew 0-0 in Primera División on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.