ADT 0–1 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

ADT

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Lima

4/14/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Union Tarma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

ADT43%

×Draw28%

Alianza Lima29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADTExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

ADT

1.29

Alianza Lima

1.02

ADT creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 151 away

1.49

creates per match

1.17

0.88

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

ADT

1.49

Alianza Lima

1.17

allows per match

ADT

0.88

Alianza Lima

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADT+0.00on par

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADT ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

ADT or draw

71%

ADT or Alianza Lima

72%

Draw or Alianza Lima

57%

Winning margin

ADT wins by 2+

19%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ADT 1+ goals

72%

ADT 2+ goals

37%

ADT 3+ goals

14%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

64%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

27%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ADT (draw refunded)

59%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADT at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADT attack 1.49 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + ADT defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ADT scores more

43%

level

28%

Alianza Lima scores more

29%

ADT at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ADT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff