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Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal Melanio Coloma Calderón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Atletico44%
×Draw29%
UTC Cajamarca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
1.27
UTC Cajamarca
0.92

Alianza Atletico creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
1.10
UTC Cajamarca
0.89

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.94
UTC Cajamarca
1.44

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.30scores less
UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
73%
Alianza Atletico or UTC Cajamarca
71%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
56%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
20%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
36%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
14%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
60%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
62%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.10 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
44%
level
29%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
27%

Alianza Atletico at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–0 UTC Cajamarca

Alianza Atletico beat UTC Cajamarca 2-0 in Primera División on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Melanio Coloma Calderón in Sullana.