Alianza Atletico vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Alianza Atletico

Preview

20:00

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

7/24/2026

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Campeones del 36

Big match

59%

Alianza Atletico

model favours

59%23%18%

71% of Alianza Atletico’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Alianza Atletico59%

×Draw23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.83

Alianza Atletico

1.74

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.83

Alianza Atletico creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.39

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.39

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.86

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.81

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.09

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.32scores less

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

82%

Alianza Atletico or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

77%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

41%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

33%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

82%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

52%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

56%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

77%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.09 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.39 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

59%

level

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

18%

Alianza Atletico at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Club Deportivo Los Chankas win just 31% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Alianza Atletico

Defensively solid

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Balanced

46%Possession47%

72%Pass accuracyBiggest gap77%

12.0Shots11.7

1.12xG1.17

Alianza AtleticoClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5

Alianza Atletico

1

Draws

2

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 38%

0–11–02–11–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Atletico

LWWWW

Chankas

WLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff