Alianza Atletico 2–1 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Atletico

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Universidad

J. Perez 63'

H. Lupu 51'

J. J. Canela Torres 13'

11/9/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Atletico57%

×Draw25%

Alianza Universidad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.78

Alianza Atletico

1.60

Alianza Universidad

0.78

Alianza Atletico creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

0.72

0.84

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.84

Alianza Universidad

1.78

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

82%

Alianza Atletico or Alianza Universidad

75%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

43%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

31%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

80%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

47%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

22%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

76%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

57%

level

25%

Alianza Universidad scores more

18%

Alianza Atletico at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Perez

Alianza Atletico · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

H. Lupu← F. Illanes

13'

J. J. Canela Torres↳ B. Guevara

31'

Miguel Agustín Graneros

42'

Anthony GordilloGoal cancelled

46'

P. Fuentes← M. Lliuya

51'

H. Lupu

59'

N. Ramirez← J. Mendieta

63'

J. Perez

67'

G. A. Larios Saavedra← M. Perez

68'

C. Vasquez← E. Perleche

70'

Guillermo Larios

71'

R. Campodonico← J. J. Canela Torres

78'

A. Cossio← A. Gordillo

78'

F. Flores← J. Perez

79'

J. Ibarguen← B. Guevara

79'

G. Iraola← A. Perleche

90+5'

Jhon Ibargüen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAlianza

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots5

11Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots5

5On Target1

8Off Target3

2Blocked1

11Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

276Total Passes315

204Accurate Passes232

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–1 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Atletico beat Alianza Universidad 2-1 in Primera División on November 9, 2025.

Goals: J. J. Canela Torres (13'), H. Lupu (51'), J. Perez (63').

Alianza Universidad controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.

Alianza Atletico vs Alianza Universidad — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Alianza Atletico 2–1 Alianza Universidad