Alianza Atletico 1–2 Alianza Universidad

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Universidad

V. Perlaza 61' (pen)

R. Espinoza 90+1'

J. Landauri 45+2'

8/19/2021

Primera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Atletico57%

×Draw25%

Alianza Universidad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.78

Alianza Atletico

1.60

Alianza Universidad

0.78

Alianza Atletico creates 105% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

0.72

0.84

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.42

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.84

Alianza Universidad

1.78

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

82%

Alianza Atletico or Alianza Universidad

75%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

43%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

31%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

80%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

47%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

22%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

54%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

76%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

57%

level

25%

Alianza Universidad scores more

18%

Alianza Atletico at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

42'

45+2'

61'

V. PerlazaPenalty

65'

R. Fergonzi← D. Saffadi

66'

C. Neumann← J. Córdova

66'

D. Manicero← J. Landauri

71'

Jose Cánova

73'

Piero Serra

79'

Ó. Vílchez← A. Sánchez

79'

R. Espinoza← J. Conde

80'

F. Aivar← R. Cruzado

81'

J. Canela← P. Serra

90+1'

R. Espinoza

Statistics

AlianzaAlianza

Overview

0Total Shots0

0Fouls0

Shots

0Total Shots0

0On Target0

0Off Target0

0Blocked0

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards1