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Alianza Atletico vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
7/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Víctor Montero Zapata (Sojo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alianza Atletico76%
×Draw15%
Alfredo Salinas8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
2.46
Alfredo Salinas
0.67

Alianza Atletico creates 267% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
2.22
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.91
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
92%
Alianza Atletico or Alfredo Salinas
85%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
24%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
54%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
91%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
70%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
44%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
49%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
15%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
90%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.46

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
76%
level
15%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
8%

Alianza Atletico at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Alfredo Salinas

Alianza Atletico beat Alfredo Salinas 1-0 in Segunda División on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Montero Zapata (Sojo).