Alfredo Salinas 2–0 Alianza Atletico

Alfredo Salinas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

4/8/2018

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas34%

×Draw24%

Alianza Atletico42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfredo SalinasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.64

Alfredo Salinas

1.45

Alianza Atletico

1.64

Alianza Atletico creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

1.36

creates per match

1.28

2.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas

1.36

Alianza Atletico

1.28

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas

2.00

Alianza Atletico

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw

58%

Alfredo Salinas or Alianza Atletico

76%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

66%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

16%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

77%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

42%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

18%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

81%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

49%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

45%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more

34%

level

24%

Alianza Atletico scores more

42%

Alianza Atletico at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff