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Algeciras vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
9/3/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Algeciras47%
×Draw27%
San Fernando CD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.38
San Fernando CD
0.93

Algeciras creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

Algeciras
1.25
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Algeciras
0.82
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
75%
Algeciras or San Fernando CD
73%
Draw or San Fernando CD
53%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
23%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
75%
Algeciras 2+ goals
40%
Algeciras 3+ goals
16%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
61%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
24%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
65%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.82 · 76 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 1.25 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Algeciras defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Algeciras scores more
47%
level
27%
San Fernando CD scores more
25%

Algeciras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Algeciras 2–1 San Fernando CD

Algeciras beat San Fernando CD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.