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Algeciras vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
4/16/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras38%
×Draw30%
San Fernando CD32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
1.10
San Fernando CD
1.00

Algeciras creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Algeciras
0.89
San Fernando CD
0.95

allows per match

Algeciras
1.05
San Fernando CD
1.32

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
68%
Algeciras or San Fernando CD
70%
Draw or San Fernando CD
62%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
15%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
67%
Algeciras 2+ goals
30%
Algeciras 3+ goals
10%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
63%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
26%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
54%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Algeciras scores more
38%
level
30%
San Fernando CD scores more
32%

Algeciras at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Algeciras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Algeciras 0–1 San Fernando CD

San Fernando CD beat Algeciras 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.