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Alfreton Town vs Burton Albion — Friendlies Clubs 2021

Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Alfreton Town10%
×Draw16%
Burton Albion73%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfreton Town
0.78
Burton Albion
2.42

Burton Albion creates 210% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Alfreton Town
0.75
Burton Albion
2.20

allows per match

Alfreton Town
2.63
Burton Albion
0.80

finishing

Alfreton Town+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfreton Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alfreton Town or draw
27%
Alfreton Town or Burton Albion
84%
Draw or Burton Albion
90%

Winning margin

Alfreton Town wins by 2+
3%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Alfreton Town 1+ goals
54%
Alfreton Town 2+ goals
18%
Alfreton Town 3+ goals
4%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
91%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
69%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)
12%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfreton Town at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfreton Town attack 0.75 + Burton Albion defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Burton Albion attack 2.20 + Alfreton Town defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Alfreton Town scores more
10%
level
16%
Burton Albion scores more
73%

Burton Albion at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Alfreton
Burton
Billy Heath
Manager: Billy Heath
Gary Bowyer
Manager: Gary Bowyer

Friendlies Clubs: Alfreton Town 0–0 Burton Albion

Alfreton Town and Burton Albion drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.