Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alfreton Town vs Burton Albion — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
J. Day 18' (pen)
M. Carayol 88'
Unknown 61'
J. Gordon 26'
K. Chauke 16'
7/11/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The Impact Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alfreton Town14%
×Draw19%
Burton Albion66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfreton Town
0.88
Burton Albion
2.15

Burton Albion creates 144% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Alfreton Town
0.75
Burton Albion
1.67

allows per match

Alfreton Town
2.63
Burton Albion
1.00

finishing

Alfreton Town+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfreton Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Alfreton Town or draw
34%
Alfreton Town or Burton Albion
81%
Draw or Burton Albion
86%

Winning margin

Alfreton Town wins by 2+
4%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Alfreton Town 1+ goals
59%
Alfreton Town 2+ goals
22%
Alfreton Town 3+ goals
6%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
88%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
63%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Alfreton Town (draw refunded)
18%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfreton Town at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfreton Town attack 0.75 + Burton Albion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Burton Albion attack 1.67 + Alfreton Town defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alfreton Town scores more
14%
level
19%
Burton Albion scores more
66%

Burton Albion at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
K. Chauke
18'
J. DayPenalty
26'
J. Gordon
46'
J. Blackman← M. Crocombe
46'
M. Carayol← M. Carayol
46'
M. Bennett← M. Helm
61'
62'
R. Harper← J. Powell
62'
J. Brayford← F. Delap
62'
J. Walker← C. Stockton
88'
M. Carayol

Statistics

AlfretonBurton
Overview
2Corners6

Match Recap: Alfreton Town vs Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Alfreton Town 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Chauke (16'), J. Day (18' pen), J. Gordon (26'), ? (61'), M. Carayol (88').

The match was played at The Impact Arena in Alfreton, Derbyshire.