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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
1 – 1
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
8/12/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim55%
×Draw24%
Ahrweiler BC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.69
Ahrweiler BC
0.94

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 80% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 10 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Ahrweiler BC
0.60

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Ahrweiler BC
1.80

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
79%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Ahrweiler BC
76%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
45%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
30%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
82%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
50%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
24%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
61%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
24%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
72%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
55%
level
24%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
21%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Ahrweiler BC

Alemannia Waldalgesheim and Ahrweiler BC drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.