Ahrweiler BC 1–2 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Ahrweiler BC

FT

1 – 2

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

10/29/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC40%

×Draw22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrweiler BCExpected goals in this matchAlemannia Waldalgesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.81

Ahrweiler BC

1.87

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

2.40

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC

1.60

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.23

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC

2.40

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw

62%

Ahrweiler BC or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

78%

Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

60%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

21%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

85%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

56%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

29%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

84%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

54%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

52%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more

40%

level

22%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

38%

Ahrweiler BC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ahrweiler BC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff