Alemannia Aachen U19 1–2 FSV Frankfurt U19

Alemannia Aachen U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FSV Frankfurt U19

M. Pobric 60'

D. Major 83'

L. Kraft 23'

3/22/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 7Sportplatz ESV Aachen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alemannia Aachen U1938%

×Draw23%

FSV Frankfurt U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alemannia Aachen U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.60

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.61

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 31 away

1.12

creates per match

1.23

1.98

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.12

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen U19

1.98

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alemannia Aachen U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen U19 or draw

62%

Alemannia Aachen U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

77%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

62%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen U19 wins by 2+

19%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen U19 1+ goals

80%

Alemannia Aachen U19 2+ goals

48%

Alemannia Aachen U19 3+ goals

22%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

80%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

47%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen U19 (draw refunded)

50%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.98 · 58 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen U19 attack 1.12 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.61

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Alemannia Aachen U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alemannia Aachen U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

38%

Alemannia Aachen U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

L. Kraft

46'

T. Kogel← S. Gösgens

60'

L. Rashica← M. Pobric

60'

T. Grimmer← A. Husovic

60'

74'

83'

84'

84'

T. Kpegouni← S. Sarar

87'

Mun Chan-Woo← D. Meene

87'

S. Kusumovic← N. Zaatan

87'

T. Wanner← D. Major

90+3'

F. Türkmen← L. Braun

Alemannia

FSV

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Wissing

46'▲T. Kogel←▼S. Gösgens

60'▲L. Rashica←▼M. Pobric

84'▲M. Fork←▼D. Franzen

84'▲T. Kpegouni←▼S. Sarar

90+3'▲F. Türkmen←▼L. Braun

Alemannia Aachen U19 substitutes

KogelRashicaForkKpegouniTürkmenSchmidtSelim

Manager: B. Yelken

60'▲T. Grimmer←▼A. Husovic

74'▲D. Demir←▼C. Dramali

87'▲Mun Chan-Woo←▼D. Meene

87'▲S. Kusumovic←▼N. Zaatan

87'▲T. Wanner←▼D. Major

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

GrimmerDemirChan-WooKusumovicWannerIwan

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 1–2 FSV Frankfurt U19

FSV Frankfurt U19 beat Alemannia Aachen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 22, 2025.

Goals: L. Kraft (23'), M. Pobric (60'), D. Major (83').

The match was played at Sportplatz ESV Aachen in Aachen.

Alemannia Aachen U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Alemannia Aachen U19 1–2 FSV Frankfurt U19