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Alcorcon vs Real Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid II
Real Madrid II
3/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo
47%
Alcorcon
model favours
47%27%26%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon47%
×Draw27%
Real Madrid II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.45
Real Madrid II
1.00

Alcorcon creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Real Madrid II
0.98

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Real Madrid II
1.28

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Real Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Real Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
74%
Alcorcon or Real Madrid II
73%
Draw or Real Madrid II
53%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
23%
Real Madrid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
77%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
42%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
18%
Real Madrid II 1+ goals
63%
Real Madrid II 2+ goals
26%
Real Madrid II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
65%
Real Madrid II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Real Madrid II away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Real Madrid II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real Madrid II attack 0.98 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alcorcon scores more
47%
level
27%
Real Madrid II scores more
26%

Alcorcon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Alcorcon
DWLLW
II
LWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Alcorcon host Real Madrid II

March 28, 2027: Alcorcon take on Real Madrid II in Primera División RFEF - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Alcorcon host Real Madrid II at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.