Alcorcón II 1–1 Alcobendas Sport: Result & Stats

Alcorcón II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alcobendas Sport

4/11/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Alcorcón II43%

×Draw27%

Alcobendas Sport31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcorcón IIExpected goals in this matchAlcobendas Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Alcorcón II

1.39

Alcobendas Sport

1.13

Alcorcón II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 117 away

1.48

creates per match

1.31

0.94

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Alcorcón II

1.48

Alcobendas Sport

1.31

allows per match

Alcorcón II

0.94

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Alcobendas Sport →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw

69%

Alcorcón II or Alcobendas Sport

73%

Draw or Alcobendas Sport

57%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

20%

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

75%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

40%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

16%

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

68%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

31%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

58%

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alcorcón II scores more

43%

level

27%

Alcobendas Sport scores more

31%

Alcorcón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcorcón II 1–1 Alcobendas Sport

Alcorcón II and Alcobendas Sport drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.

Alcorcón II vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcorcón II 1–1 Alcobendas Sport