Alcobendas Sport 2–0 Alcorcón II: Result & Stats

Alcobendas Sport

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alcorcón II

12/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Municipal de San Blas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Alcobendas Sport35%

×Draw27%

Alcorcón II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcobendas SportExpected goals in this matchAlcorcón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Alcobendas Sport

1.20

Alcorcón II

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 97 away

1.30

creates per match

1.26

1.28

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

Alcorcón II

1.26

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.28

Alcorcón II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Alcorcón II →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw

62%

Alcobendas Sport or Alcorcón II

73%

Draw or Alcorcón II

65%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

15%

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

70%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

34%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

12%

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

72%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

36%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

48%

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more

35%

level

27%

Alcorcón II scores more

38%

Alcorcón II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Alcorcón II

Alcobendas Sport beat Alcorcón II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Blas in Madrid.

Alcobendas Sport vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Alcorcón II