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Olímpia BA vs UNIRB — Baiano - 2 2019

Olímpia BA
Olímpia BA
FT
3 – 0
UNIRB
UNIRB
3/17/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olímpia BA58%
×Draw24%
UNIRB18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olímpia BA
1.67
UNIRB
0.79

Olímpia BA creates 111% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Olímpia BA
2.17
UNIRB
0.58

allows per match

Olímpia BA
1.00
UNIRB
1.17

finishing

Olímpia BA+0.00on par
UNIRB+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olímpia BA ↓

UNIRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Olímpia BA or draw
82%
Olímpia BA or UNIRB
76%
Draw or UNIRB
42%

Winning margin

Olímpia BA wins by 2+
32%
UNIRB wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Olímpia BA 1+ goals
81%
Olímpia BA 2+ goals
50%
Olímpia BA 3+ goals
23%
UNIRB 1+ goals
55%
UNIRB 2+ goals
19%
UNIRB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Olímpia BA (draw refunded)
77%
UNIRB (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olímpia BA at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

UNIRB away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olímpia BA attack 2.17 + UNIRB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

UNIRB attack 0.58 + Olímpia BA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Olímpia BA scores more
58%
level
24%
UNIRB scores more
18%

Olímpia BA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Olímpia BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olímpia BA vs UNIRB

Olímpia BA beat UNIRB 3-0 in Baiano - 2 on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.