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UNIRB vs Olímpia BA — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
1 – 0
Olímpia BA
Olímpia BA
5/5/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

UNIRB47%
×Draw26%
Olímpia BA27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
1.48
Olímpia BA
1.05

UNIRB creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Olímpia BA
1.33

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Olímpia BA
0.50

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Olímpia BA+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Olímpia BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
73%
UNIRB or Olímpia BA
74%
Draw or Olímpia BA
53%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
23%
Olímpia BA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
77%
UNIRB 2+ goals
43%
UNIRB 3+ goals
19%
Olímpia BA 1+ goals
65%
Olímpia BA 2+ goals
28%
Olímpia BA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
64%
Olímpia BA (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Olímpia BA away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Olímpia BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Olímpia BA attack 1.33 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UNIRB scores more
47%
level
26%
Olímpia BA scores more
27%

UNIRB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNIRB vs Olímpia BA

UNIRB beat Olímpia BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.