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Albirex Niigata vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
3/11/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Albirex Niigata42%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.36
Kyoto Sanga
1.14

Albirex Niigata creates 19% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 89 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.52
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.08
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
69%
Albirex Niigata or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
58%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
19%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
74%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
39%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
16%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
68%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
57%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 105 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.52 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
42%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
31%

Albirex Niigata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Albirex Niigata 1–1 Kyoto Sanga

Albirex Niigata and Kyoto Sanga drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 11, 2018.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata).