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Albion Rovers vs Annan Athletic — League Cup 2018

Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
11/10/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albion Rovers40%
×Draw21%
Annan Athletic39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albion Rovers
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Albion Rovers
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.15

allows per match

Albion Rovers
2.78
Annan Athletic
3.00

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par
Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Annan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw
61%
Albion Rovers or Annan Athletic
79%
Draw or Annan Athletic
60%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+
22%
Annan Athletic wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals
86%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
59%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
32%
Annan Athletic 1+ goals
86%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
58%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
51%
Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 1.00 + Annan Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Annan Athletic attack 1.15 + Albion Rovers defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albion Rovers scores more
40%
level
21%
Annan Athletic scores more
39%

Albion Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Albion Rovers vs Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic beat Albion Rovers 5-1 in League Cup on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.